I was responding to the comments on my previous post from Alex and decided it was getting too long and I'd better just post another topic. So here goes.
I agree that a Clinton-Obama ticket is more likely than the reverse, solely for the fact that 1. I don't think Obama would offer it (Hillary does less to make up for Obama than Obama does for Hillary.. for example, Barack's weakness appears to be experience, but John McCain would run on experience against Clinton too, because in comparison she has NONE) and 2. Hillary wouldn't take it.. I think it's all or nothing for her. I don't see her taking a back seat. The only reason why I can say that it's sliiiightly more likely for Obama to take the VP slot is because he's young and could say to himself that in 8 years he'd be poised to take the reigns. That said, the time is right for him. This year. It's his time.
Swing states that Obama won: Minnesota (unfortunately they talk of us as a swinger), Iowa, Virginia, Wisconsin, Missouri, Colorado. Granted they are not Ohio, or Florida (which Hillary didn't really win) but the dems can win without those states. It can be done. What other swing states has she won? New Mexico (which McCain would win due to proximity), Arkansas, New Hampshire (again, they love McCain there). That's not many swing states. And as for winning the big states that the Dems need to win for the general election? California, New York. If those states go Republican I'll buy everyone who reads this post a nice four course dinner. The notion that winning those big states prove she'll carry them and Obama won't is ludicrous. Nonsense.
As for Obama staying away from the negative... You can criticize without being negative. At least by my definition, criticism is founded, negative attacks are not. There is substance to questioning what experience Hillary really does have (Obama's current line of attack which makes me very happy). There is no substance to saying in a low voice and dark room with sleeping children "Who do you want answering the phone?" No, that's a stupid leading question that has no substance. I think if you asked that to people without the theatrics people's responses would be split. So Obama can criticize, if its founded. The politics of new does not include baseless attacks. It can still include well reasoned arguments. Screaming at Ohioans saying "Shame on you Barack Obama" is theatrics. It's theater to her. Maybe that's why she seems more fake to me, because she seems like she's an actor.
To respond to Nick's comment - I think its a bit much to say "I hope Obama can rebound." It's not time for a rebound. Last night I may have said so too, but when the dust settled, Obama is fine. He is still up 96 delegates. She made up less than 10 last night. If they split every race from here on out (on average, obviously he'd win some and she'd probably win some) and the Super Delegates split from here on out he'd end with more overall, and enough for the nomination (that's without Florida or Michigan, and without the Super Delegates deciding it - notice how I said they would split the remaining Super Delegates, which would mean that overall Hillary would still be up 40 in Supers and would still lose the nomination, which means the Supers wouldn't have decided it). Retool, yes. Rethink strategy, some. Rebound, nah. He is in almost as good of shape as before.
Plus, if his margin holds in the Texas caucus (which counts for 1/3 of their delegates) he will win that third by 12, while Hillary won the primary by just 3. When you think about it, and do some simple math, she won 1/3 by 3 and 1/3 by 3, so 6 total, while Obama would win 1/3 by 12. 6-12 Obama. If that happens, how many pundits will be saying Obama won Texas? Watch for it. (Of course if his margin is erased this point is moot).
I am more hopeful than last night. Still cynical when it comes to the voting public (until people vote with their heads and not their fears, I'll reserve my right to doubts), but hopeful about Obama's chances. Besides, today he looks as strong - or stronger - than ever, smartly criticizing Hillary on points she is weak on.